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I learned the cost of waiting for certainty early in my investing career. A friend introduced me to a micro trading app. There was no revenue and no meaningful user base, and the valuation seemed disconnected from the company’s current standing. I wanted more proof. I wanted stronger signals and cleaner data. I convinced myself that a better picture was coming if I held off.
The company became Robinhood.
That decision stayed with me. It showed how expensive hesitation can be and how misleading the idea of “complete clarity” really is. Early-stage work rarely offers perfect information. The moment you want the most certainty is usually the moment you have the least. Markets move, customers shift and the information you wait for often doesn’t show up until long after the opportunity has passed.
This is why progress slows when leaders treat uncertainty as a reason to pause. The companies that move fastest tend to be led by people who understand that clarity forms through action over analysis. Instead of waiting for the complete picture, they move when they reach a workable level of conviction. That is the foundation of One Sigma Confidence.
What One Sigma Confidence actually means
The name borrows from basic statistics, but the rule itself is simple. When you feel roughly 70% confident in a direction, it is time to act. Not with bravado, and not with unquestioning optimism. With grounded conviction that acknowledges what you know, what you believe, and what remains uncertain.
This mindset is effective because it acknowledges the realities of early-stage work. Very few decisions come with a complete data set. High-growth environments reward forward movement over intellectual perfectionism. One Sigma Confidence gives you the structure to make timely decisions without drifting into recklessness.
The cost of over-analysis
Over-analysis masquerades as discipline, yet it often reflects fear. Founders delay product launches while they wait for perfect customer feedback. Investors request more proof even after the core questions have been answered. Team members hold off on key decisions because they want someone to guarantee the outcome.
The cost shows up slowly. Momentum fades. Opportunities pass. Competitors ship. Investors reallocate attention to founders who are moving. A polished plan with no traction rarely outperforms a scrappy plan supported by real-world learning.
The people who advance are the ones who accept that partial information is not a flaw. Instead, they embrace ambiguity as a normal condition of building something new.
A moment when 70% was enough
One of my strongest investments came from a situation where I did not have the whole picture. I invested in a robotics company after scoring the team, the idea, the valuation and the alignment across my framework. The total landed above my threshold, yet it still left more open questions than I preferred.
I knew the founder had the right temperament. I knew the problem they sought to solve was real. I knew the early signals deserved attention. That was enough to move.
Years later, John Deere acquired the company for $250 million.
That outcome underscores what the Robinhood miss taught me in reverse. Acting at 70% is not a gamble, but rather a disciplined way to participate in opportunities that rarely arrive with perfect clarity.
Why action produces better insight than planning
Good judgment does not come from waiting. It comes from taking steps, observing how the world responds, and making adjustments. Every customer conversation, early sale, investor debate and product test creates a new data point. The patterns become easier to see once you are in motion.
This is why founders who act at 70% confidence tend to pivot faster. They gather real information instead of theoretical projections. Their teams stay engaged because they can see progress. Investors trust them because their updates reflect movement rather than speculation.
The same applies to investors. Those who rely only on decks and models often miss what becomes obvious once they meet the founder, observe the follow-through, and see how the idea holds up under pressure. Action reveals a signal faster than planning.
How investors and founders use the rule in practice
For investors, One Sigma Confidence protects against emotional swings. It anchors decisions in a consistent framework rather than relying on instinct alone. A clear rubric across team strength, idea quality, valuation, and alignment helps determine whether a company meets the threshold. You don’t have to get it right every time. The goal is to be disciplined.
It also helps with portfolio management. Companies move through green, yellow, and red zones over time. Investors who update those rankings regularly develop stronger pattern recognition. They identify which founders deserve more support, which need guidance and which may not recover. The rule creates a rhythm of steady evaluation instead of reaction.
For founders, the rule provides permission to move. Leadership becomes quieter, more confident, and more transparent. A team can handle uncertainty when the person at the front makes timely decisions and communicates clearly. Investors appreciate that steadiness as well. They want founders who take action, surface concerns early and adjust with intention.
70% confidence feels like partial clarity paired with forward energy. It rarely feels comfortable, and comfort is not required. What matters is that once your confidence crosses that threshold, hesitation can no longer add value.
Clarity builds through movement
One Sigma Confidence is a practical skill. It is learned through repetition and strengthened through honest evaluation. It rewards the people who respect uncertainty while still committing to a direction. The companies that thrive are led by people who understand this rhythm.
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I learned the cost of waiting for certainty early in my investing career. A friend introduced me to a micro trading app. There was no revenue and no meaningful user base, and the valuation seemed disconnected from the company’s current standing. I wanted more proof. I wanted stronger signals and cleaner data. I convinced myself that a better picture was coming if I held off.
The company became Robinhood.
That decision stayed with me. It showed how expensive hesitation can be and how misleading the idea of “complete clarity” really is. Early-stage work rarely offers perfect information. The moment you want the most certainty is usually the moment you have the least. Markets move, customers shift and the information you wait for often doesn’t show up until long after the opportunity has passed.
